Misalan zaman wasa · Misali · minti 7

Misali: rarrabawar Bond

$140 a kan lambobi manya, $50 a kan six line 13–18, $10 a kan sifili: $200 a kowane juyi, an rufe lambobi 25. Rarrabawar James Bond na tsawon juye-juye ashirin.

Amsa a taƙaice

Zaman wasa na kwaikwayo mai juye-juye 20 na rarrabawar da ake sayarwa a matsayin dabarar James Bond. Nasara goma sha biyu ta $80, fitowar six line uku ta $100, sifili ɗaya na $160, da asara huɗu ta $200 a kan 1–12. Sakamakon tsaf +$620, ba a taɓa yin asarar fiye da $40 ba. Rarrabawar tana rufe kusan kashi biyu cikin uku na dabaran. Idan ɗaya daga cikin lambobin da ba a rufe ba ya fito, dukan kuɗin caca na $200 ya tafi.

a kowane juyi
$200
tana rufewa
25 cikin 37
p(nasara)
67.6%
abin da ake tsammani a kowane juyi
−$5.41

Shirin

A kan tebur irin na Faransa: $140 a kan 19–36, $50 a kan six linecacaSix lineLambobi shida a layuka biyu da ke maƙwabtaka, biya 5:1. A Faransanci: sixain.Karanta gaba ɗaya → (lambobi shida) 13–18, $10 a kan sifilidabaranSifiliRamin kore guda ɗaya da babu cacar ɗaya zuwa ɗaya, ta dozin ko ta ginshiƙi da ke rufe shi; tushen fifikon gidan caca. Ana kuma kiransa: sifili ɗaya, 0.Karanta gaba ɗaya →. An rufe lambobi ashirin da biyar. Lamba babba tana biyan $140 kuma tana rasa $60: +$80. Lambar six line tana biyan $250 kuma tana rasa $150: +$100. Sifili yana biyan $350 kuma yana rasa $190: +$160. Kowace daga cikin 1–12 tana rasa duka: −$200. Ƙimar da ake tsammanilissafiƘimar da ake tsammaniMatsakaicin sakamako a kowace caca a cikin dogon lokaci. −1/37 na kuɗin caca a kowace cacar Turai ta yau da kullum.Karanta gaba ɗaya → a kowane juyi ita ce (18×80 + 6×100 + 160 − 12×200)/37 = −$5.41, wato 2.70% na $200. Rarrabawar caca ce daidai-wa-daida da aka sa mata kayan ado.

Dabarar caca iri ɗaya a roulette

Juye-juye 1–10

19 27 7 33 15 0 23 31 11 29. Manya shida, six line ɗaya, sifili ɗaya, asara biyu: +480 +100 +160 −400 = +$340. Ma'auni +$340 bayan juye-juye goma, da juye-juye biyu masu asara da kowanne ya ɗauki $200. Sifili a juyi na 6 ya biya $160, kuma wannan ne kawai lokacin da sifili ya ji kamar aboki.

juyilambasakamakotsafma'auni
119babba+$80+$80
227babba+$80+$160
371–12−$200−$40
433babba+$80+$40
515six line+$100+$140
60sifili+$160+$300
723babba+$80+$380
831babba+$80+$460
9111–12−$200+$260
1029babba+$80+$340
Juyi na shida: ƙwallo ya sauka a sifili, kuma tsabar caca ta $10 da ke kansa ta sa juyin ya ba da ribar $160.

Juye-juye 11–20

5 22 36 14 20 2 28 34 17 25. Asara biyu a juye-juye shida na farko sun mayar da ma'aunin zuwa +$280; sannan manya uku da six line ɗaya suka rufe zaman wasan a +$620. Juye-juye ashirin: manya 12, fitowar six line 3, sifili 1, asara 4. Sakamakon tsaf da ake tsammani −$108 ne; ainihin +$620, kusan standard deviationlissafiStandard deviationTushen murabba'i na bambancin sakamako; nisan da sakamako ke yawan yi daga ƙimar da ake tsammani.Karanta gaba ɗaya → 1.2 sama da abin da ake tsammani, dare mai kyau.

Wannan zaman wasa da wasu tara irinsasakamako idan aka kwatanta da farko
+$5,500$0−$2,000+$1,640−$1,0000125250375500juye-juyesakamako
zaman wasa 1,000 × juyi 500 · shunayya p10/p25/p75/p90, shuɗi mai haske tsakiya, samfurori 82 marasa haske · ku matsa a kan jadawalin don ganin kashi-kashi a wani juyi
  • p10 −$2,000
  • p25 −$2,000
  • tsakiya −$2,000
  • p75 −$2,000
  • p90 +$780
zaman wasa 1,000 × juyi 500 · an yanke layin y zuwa kashi na 1–99 (iyakoki −$2,000 zuwa +$8,860) · juyi 500 · tushe $200 · Rarrabawar James Bond
Caca daidai-wa-daida ta $200 a kan lambobi 25: nasarori na $80–$160 kusan juye-juye biyu cikin uku, asarori na $200 juyi ɗaya cikin uku. Layin matsakaici yana gangarowa da −$5.41 a kowane juyi.

Lissafin kuɗi

Jimillar caca $4,000 a juye-juye ashirin. Asarar da ake tsammanilissafiAsarar da ake tsammaniƘimar da ake tsammani sau jimillar kuɗin da aka yi caca da su; matsakaicin adadin da ake rasawa a cikin zaman wasa ko wani lokaci.Karanta gaba ɗaya → $108. Standard deviation na juyi ɗaya kusan $135 ne, don haka juye-juye ashirin suna da standard deviation na kusan $605; +$620 ko fiye dare ne ɗaya cikin tara. Irin waɗannan juye-juye ashirin da $200 daidai-wa-daida a kan jacacaJaCacar ɗaya zuwa ɗaya (even-money) a kan lambobi ja 18. A Faransanci: rouge.Karanta gaba ɗaya → da suna da abin da ake tsammani iri ɗaya da rarrabuwar sakamako mafi faɗi (σ ≈ $200 a kowane juyi): rarrabawar tana da ƙaramin bambancin sakamakolissafiBambancin sakamakoMa'aunin yadda sakamako ke yaɗuwa a kewayen ƙimar da ake tsammani. Yana da girma ga straight up, ƙanƙanta ga cace-cacen ɗaya zuwa ɗaya.Karanta gaba ɗaya → fiye da cacar ɗaya zuwa ɗayacacaCacar ɗaya zuwa ɗaya (even-money)Ja/baƙi, mara/cika, manya/ƙanana. Lambobi 18, biya 1:1.Karanta gaba ɗaya → domin tana cin nasara sau da yawa kuma da ƙaramin adadi.

Abin da zaman wasan ya nuna

Rarrabawar Bond cace-cace uku ne waɗanda abin da ake tsammani daga gare su ya haɗu zuwa −1/37 na jimillar, kamar kowane haɗin cace-cace na yau da kullum. Ainihin siffarta ita ce rufe lambobi: yawan nasara na 67.6% yana sa maraice ya ji kamar tsari. Kashi 32.4% na juye-juye da ke asara suna ɗaukar $200 kowanne, kuma a dogon lokaci suna ɗaukar daidai abin da lissafi ya ce. Duk da sunan, ba ya cikin littattafan Fleming: Bond nasa yana caca a kan dozincacaDozin1–12, 13–24 ko 25–36, biya 2:1.Karanta gaba ɗaya → biyu. Ƙasidun dabarun caca ne suka yi sauran.

Roulette a cikin adabiDabarar dozin da ginshiƙai a roulette

Tambayoyi

Rarrabawar tana aiki da kyau tare da la partage?

Cacar lambobi manya cacar ɗaya zuwa ɗaya ce, don haka a kan tebur na Faransa tana rasa $70 kawai a sifili maimakon $140, kuma sifili yana ba da +$230 tsaf maimakon +$160. Fifikon gidan caca na haɗe kusan 1.8%. Ya fi, amma har yanzu asara ne.

Me ya sa $140, $50, $10?

Rabe-raben suna kusan daidaita nasarorin: $80, $100, $160. Kowane rabo yana ba da fifikon gidan caca iri ɗaya.

Caca ce daidai-wa-daida?

Eh. Kuna sa $200 a kan lambobi 25 iri ɗaya a kowane juyi. Adadin da zaɓin ba sa canzawa bayan nasara ko asara.

Ɗan barkwanci

Kashi biyu cikin uku na dabaran. Kashi ɗaya cikin uku na lokaci, duka ya tafi.

Kashi biyu cikin uku na dabaran. Kashi ɗaya cikin uku na lokaci, duka ya tafi.

Majiyoyi

  1. Fleming, I. Casino Royale. Jonathan Cape, 1953. Babi na 7: Bond yana caca a kan dozin biyu, ba wannan rarrabawar ba.
  2. Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling. Springer, 2010. Babi na 13, roulette.
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