Dabara · Jerin ƙarin caca bayan asara · minti 9

Dabarar Martingale a roulette

Dabarar Martingale a roulette tana ninka caca sau biyu bayan kowace asara kuma tana komawa kan cacar farko bayan nasara. Kowace nasara tana dawo da duk asarar da ta gabata tare da raka'a ɗaya ta cacar farko. Shafin da ke ƙasa yana nuna abin da hakan ke yi wa jarin caca, da dalilin da ya sa ba zai iya canza asarar da ake tsammani ba.

Amsa a taƙaiceBa ya yin galaba a kan dabaran. A matsayin dabarar ninkawa a roulette, Martingale yana samar da ƙananan nasarori da yawa da manyan asarori lokaci-lokaci. A kowane adadin juye-juye, asarar da ake tsammani har yanzu 2.70% ce na jimillar adadin da aka yi caca da shi, kuma saboda jerin yana caca da kuɗi mai yawa, asarar da ake tsammani a kowane zaman wasa ta fi ta caca mai ƙayyadadden adadi girma, ba ƙanƙanta ba.

Yaya tsarin Martingale na roulette yake aiki?

Idan an yi asara, a ninka. Idan an ci, a koma kan cacar farko. Wannan shi ne dukan tsarin. Da cacar farko ta $10 da iyakar teburi ta $500, jerin yana ƙarewa bayan asara shida. Ginshiƙi na ƙarshe yiwuwar kai wa wannan mataki ne a kan cacar ɗaya zuwa ɗaya, inda yiwuwar kowace asara take 19/37.

asara ta #caca ta gabajimillar da aka sanya a haɗarip(kai wa)

0$10$10100.00%

1$20$3051.35%

2$40$7026.37%

3$80$15013.54%

4$160$3106.95%

5$320$6303.57%

6$640$1,2701.83%

7$1,280$2,5500.94%

Cacar farko $10, iyakar teburi $500. Bayan asara shida, caca ta gaba ita ce $640, sama da iyakar: jerin ƙarin cacar yana karyewa bayan an rasa $630. Yiwuwar asara shida a jere a kan ja ita ce (19/37)^6 = 1.83%, kusan sau ɗaya a cikin kowane ƙoƙari 55.

Ku bi tsarin mataki-mataki

Asara tana ninka kuɗin caca. Nasara tana komawa farko.

kuɗin caca na gaba1sakamako zuwa yanzu0juye-juye0

Kuɗin caca da sakamako suna cikin raka'o'in cacar tushe.

Yaya zaman wasa yake kama?

Ƙananan matakai zuwa sama, sannan rami. A Martingale na roulette, kowane jerin ninkawa da ya kammala yana ƙara cacar farko ɗaya, don haka layin yana hawa a hankali. Jerin da ya kai iyakar $500 yana mayar da $630 lokaci ɗaya: matakai 63 daga cikin waɗannan.

Zaman wasa goma na Martingale, cacar farko $10, iyaka $500sakamako idan aka kwatanta da farko

zaman wasa 1,000 × juyi 500 · shunayya p10/p25/p75/p90, shuɗi mai haske tsakiya, samfurori 83 marasa haske · ku matsa a kan jadawalin don ganin kashi-kashi a wani juyi

p10 −$1,000
p25 −$1,000
tsakiya −$1,000
p75 +$930
p90 +$1,830

zaman wasa 1,000 × juyi 500 · an yanke layin y zuwa kashi na 1–99 (iyakoki −$1,000 zuwa +$2,640) · juyi 500 · tushe $10 · 1 zuwa 1

Kowane layi zaman wasa ɗaya ne na cace-cacen ɗaya zuwa ɗaya daga jarin caca na $1,000. Dogon hawa, faɗuwa ba zato.

Ƙananan matakai zuwa sama, sannan rami da ke mayar da su duka lokaci ɗaya.

Simulator

Kowane saiti yana gudanar da zaman wasa 2,000 na cace-cacen ɗaya zuwa ɗaya daga jarin caca na $1,000. Sakamako yana sabuntuwa nan take.

Cacar tushe

Iyakar teburi

Juye-juye a kowane zaman wasa

Sakamakon zaman wasa · zaman wasa 2,000 · juyi 100 · tushe $10 · iyaka $500asara ← | → riba

−$1,000$0+$650

ku kai kibiya kan wani sanda · sanduna ja zaman wasa ne na asara, kore na nasara, sandan mai haske yana kan $0

zaman wasa da riba

40.8%

sakamakon tsakiya

−$130

matsakaicin sakamako

−$66.44

jerin ƙarin caca ya karye

59.3% na zaman wasa

kashi na 5 (percentile)

−$1,000

tsakiyar mafi girman faɗuwa

−$650

Yawancin zaman wasa suna ƙarewa da ɗan riba (40.8%), shi ne abin da ke jan hankali. Matsakaicin sakamako ƙasa da sifili ne (−$66.44) saboda zaman wasa na asara manya ne: jerin ƙarin caca ya kai iyakar teburi a 59.3% na zaman wasa. Wanda ke cacar $10 kowane lokaci a juye-juye iri ɗaya ana tsammanin zai yi asarar kusan $27.

Sau nawa jerin asara ke zuwa

Cacar ɗaya zuwa ɗaya a kan dabaran mai sifili ɗaya tana yin asara a juyi 19 cikin 37. Kowane layi yana nuna yiwuwar cewa wasu juye-juye a jere duk za su yi asara, da abin da ɗan wasan Martingale, wanda ke ninka caca bayan kowace asara, ya rasa zuwa lokacin.

Cacar tushe

asara a jere	yiwuwa	kusan 1 cikin	asara zuwa yanzu	caca ta gaba
1	51.4%	2	$1	$2
2	26.4%	4	$3	$4
3	13.5%	7	$7	$8
4	7.0%	14	$15	$16
5	3.6%	28	$31	$32
6	1.8%	55	$63	$64
7	0.94%	106	$127	$128
8	0.48%	207	$255	$256
9	0.25%	403	$511	$512
10	0.13%	784	$1,023	$1,024
11	0.065%	1527	$2,047	$2,048
12	0.034%	2974	$4,095	$4,096
13	0.017%	5792	$8,191	$8,192
14	0.0089%	11279	$16,383	$16,384
15	0.0046%	21965	$32,767	$32,768

Yiwuwar ita ce 19/37 da aka ninka da kanta sau ɗaya a kowace asara, ana ƙirgawa daga juyi ɗaya ƙayyadadde. Zaman wasa mai tsawo yana da juye-juye da yawa inda irin wannan jeri zai iya farawa, don haka a cikin yamma guda ya fi yiwuwa nesa ba kusa ba fiye da yadda layi ɗaya ke nunawa.

Jerin asara goma sha biyar yana zuwa kusan sau ɗaya a cikin ƙoƙari 22,000. Wannan yana kama da babu haɗari. Amma ba haka ba ne, saboda dalilai biyu. Kowane juyi yana fara sabon ƙoƙari, kuma maraice ɗaya yana da ɗaruruwan juye-juye. Kuma babu wanda ke kai wa goma sha biyar: daga cacar farko ta $10, iyakar $500 tana kawo ƙarshen ninkawa bayan asara shida, waɗanda ke zuwa kusan sau ɗaya a cikin ƙoƙari 55.

Me ya sa ba zai iya canza damar nasara ba?

Ƙimar da ake tsammani tana haɗuwa. Idan kowace caca ɗaya tana da tsammanin −2.70% na kuɗin cacarta, to kowane jerin cace-cace, ko ta yaya aka zaɓi kuɗin caca, yana da tsammanin −2.70% na jimillar kuɗin da aka sanya. Zaɓin kuɗin caca na iya dogara da sakamakon da ya gabata; ba zai iya dogara da na gaba ba.

E[Σ bᵢ·Xᵢ] = Σ bᵢ·E[Xᵢ] = −(1/37)·Σ bᵢ
an zaɓi bᵢ kafin juyi i; Xᵢ = ±1 bai dogara da bᵢ ba

Kuskuren fahimta da aka saba

“Kuna buƙatar cin nasara sau ɗaya kawai don dawo da komai.”

Gaskiya ne a cikin jerin da ya kammala. Jerin da bai kammala ba, saboda iyakar teburi ko jarin cacarku, yana rasa dukan jerin, kuma wannan jerin babba ne bisa tsarinsa.

“Da isasshen jarin caca, ba zai iya gazawa ba.”

Iyakar teburi tana dakatar da ninkawa tun kafin yawancin jarin caca su ƙare. Ba tare da iyaka ba, jarin cacar da ake buƙata yana ƙaruwa ninki-ninki, yayin da ribar kowane zagaye ta tsaya a raka'a ɗaya ta cacar farko.

“Asara shida a jere kusan ba za ta yiwu ba.”

A kan ja tana faruwa a 1.83% na tagogin juyi shida. A zaman wasa na juye-juye 200, yawanci za ku ga aƙalla jerin asara shida ɗaya.

Ɗan barkwanci

Ƙananan nasarori da yawa, babbar asara ɗaya da ba kasafai ba. Kuma ku da kanku kuke biyan diyyar.

Kammalawar lissafiTsarin Martingale a roulette yana musanya babbar yiwuwar ƙaramar nasara da ƙaramar yiwuwar babbar asara. Inshora ce da aka sayar a juye: kuna karɓar ƙaramin kuɗin inshora a yawancin dare, kuma ku da kanku kuke biyan babbar diyyar da ba kasafai take faruwa ba. Yana ƙara adadin da ake caca da shi a kowane zaman wasa, don haka yana ƙara asarar da ake tsammani a kowane zaman wasa. Ba ya rage fifikon gidan caca, kuma ba zai iya rage shi ba. Idan duk da haka kuka yi amfani da dabarar Martingale a roulette, ku san inda tsarin zai karye tun da wuri: da cacar farko ta $10 da iyakar $500, asara shida ce a jere, abin da ke da yiwuwar 1.8% a kowane ƙoƙari. Duba Sarrafa jarin caca da Iyakar asara / iyakar riba.