Misalan zaman wasa · Misali · minti 7

Misali: Oscar’s Grind

Ƙarin raka'a ɗaya bayan nasara, kuɗin caca iri ɗaya bayan asara, a tsayar da zagayen idan an sami ribar raka'a ɗaya. Tsarin da ya fi kowane jinkiri, na tsawon juye-juye ɗari.

Amsa a taƙaice

Zaman wasa na kwaikwayo na Oscar’s Grind mai juye-juye 100, $10 a kowace raka'a a kan baƙicacaBaƙiCacar ɗaya zuwa ɗaya (even-money) a kan lambobi baƙi 18. A Faransanci: noir.Karanta gaba ɗaya →. Zagaye takwas sun rufe da +$10 kowanne, ɗaya daga cikinsu bayan juye-juye 41, kuɗin caca na $50 da faɗuwar jari ta $230; na tara yana nan a buɗe a −$140 lokacin da zaman wasan ya ƙare. Sakamakon tsaf −$60. Ƙaramin bambancin sakamako, babu faɗuwa kwatsam, fifikon gidan caca iri ɗaya.

raka'a
$10 a kan baƙi
doka
+1 raka'a bayan nasara, a riƙe bayan asara
burin zagaye
+1 raka'a
sakamako
−$60 a juye-juye 100

Ku bi tsarin mataki-mataki

Asara tana barin kuɗin caca yadda yake. Nasara tana ƙara raka'a ɗaya, amma ba fiye da abin da zagayen tsarin ke buƙata don kaiwa +1 ba. A +1 sabon zagaye yana farawa.

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kuɗin caca na gaba1wannan zagayen tsarin0sakamako zuwa yanzu0juye-juye0

Kuɗin caca da sakamako suna cikin raka'o'in cacar tushe.

Shirin

A sa caca ta raka'akuɗiRaka'aKuɗin caca na tushe da tsari ko ɗan wasa ke aiki da shi. Ana bayyana jerin ƙarin caca a raka'a don su yi aiki a kowane tebur.Karanta gaba ɗaya → ɗaya. Bayan asara, a sake sa irin wannan. Bayan nasara, a ƙara raka'a ɗaya, sai dai idan ƙarin zai sa zagayen ya wuce +1 raka'a; a lokacin a sa abin da ake buƙata kawai don a ƙare daidai a +1. Idan zagayen ya sami ribar raka'a ɗaya, a sake farawa da raka'a ɗaya. Kuɗin caca yana ƙaruwa ne kawai a nasarori, don haka jerin asarori ba ya taɓa kumbura shi; niƙan yana zuwa ne daga buƙatar jerin nasarori don fita daga ramin da aka haƙa da ƙaramin kuɗin caca.

Yiwuwar jerin sakamako iri ɗaya a roulette

Juye-juye 1–30

Zagaye huɗu sun rufe. Mafi tsawo ya yi juye-juye goma sha ɗaya: A A A (−$30 a $10), N (−$20, kuɗin caca zuwa $20), A A (−$60), N (−$40, kuɗin caca zuwa $30), N (−$10; ƙari zuwa $40 zai wuce, don haka kuɗin caca $20), A (−$30), N (−$10), N: zagayen a +$10, an rufe. Sakamakon tsaf bayan juye-juye 30 +$40. Kuɗin caca bai taɓa wuce $30 ba. Shi ne tsarin da ya fi rashin ban sha'awa a shafin, kuma wannan yabo ne.

zagayejuye-juyekuɗin caca mafi girmafaɗuwar jaritsaf
13$20−$10+$10
211$30−$60+$10
35$20−$20+$10
411$30−$50+$10
bayan 30zagaye 4+$40

Juye-juye 31–71

Dogon zagayen. Asara takwas a juye-juye goma na farko sun haƙa −$50. Nasarori sun ɗaga kuɗin caca zuwa $20, $30, $40, $50; asarori a waɗannan kuɗin caca sun ƙara zurfin ramin, zuwa −$230 a juyi na 52. Daga nan wani ɓangare mai kyau, nasara goma sha ɗaya a juye-juye goma sha shida da kuɗin caca na $40–$50, ya dawo da shi sama, kuma zagayen ya rufe a juyi na 71 da +$10. Juye-juye arba'in da ɗaya, $230 cikin haɗari a mafi munin lokaci, raka'a ɗaya aka samu.

Wannan zaman wasa da wasu tara irinsasakamako idan aka kwatanta da farko
+$1,110$0−$1,000+$890−$5000125250375500juye-juyesakamako
zaman wasa 1,000 × juyi 500 · shunayya p10/p25/p75/p90, shuɗi mai haske tsakiya, samfurori 83 marasa haske · ku matsa a kan jadawalin don ganin kashi-kashi a wani juyi
  • p10 −$1,000
  • p25 −$1,000
  • tsakiya −$1,000
  • p75 +$710
  • p90 +$880
zaman wasa 1,000 × juyi 500 · an yanke layin y zuwa kashi na 1–99 (iyakoki −$1,000 zuwa +$1,280) · juyi 500 · tushe $10 · 1 zuwa 1
A kwance na dogon lokaci, ƙananan matakai sama, lokaci-lokaci kuma zurfafan ramuka da ake fita daga cikinsu a hankali. Gangarar matsakaicin ita ce wadda aka saba.
Juye-juye arba'in da ɗaya da asarar $230 a mafi munin lokaci, don a ƙare da ribar raka'a ɗaya.

Juye-juye 72–100

Ƙarin zagaye uku sun rufe, ɗaya kuma an bar shi a juyi na 100 yana a −$140 da kuɗin caca na $30. Ƙarshe −$60: zagaye takwas a +$10 da zagaye ɗaya a buɗe a −$140 (zagaye a buɗe shi ne hanyar da aka saba ƙare zaman wasa na Oscar, domin zagayen suna da tsawo).

Lissafin kuɗi

Matsakaicin kuɗin caca kusan $22, jimillar caca kusan $2,200 idan aka kwatanta da $1,000 da caca daidai-wa-daida. Asarar da ake tsammanilissafiAsarar da ake tsammaniƘimar da ake tsammani sau jimillar kuɗin da aka yi caca da su; matsakaicin adadin da ake rasawa a cikin zaman wasa ko wani lokaci.Karanta gaba ɗaya → $59; ainihin sakamako −$60. Zaman wasa da ya sauka daidai a kan abin da ake tsammani, abin da Oscar’s Grind yake yi fiye da sauran tsare-tsare domin bambancin sakamakonsalissafiBambancin sakamakoMa'aunin yadda sakamako ke yaɗuwa a kewayen ƙimar da ake tsammani. Yana da girma ga straight up, ƙanƙanta ga cace-cacen ɗaya zuwa ɗaya.Karanta gaba ɗaya → ƙarami ne: kuɗin caca yana ƙaruwa ne kawai idan muna cin nasara, kuma ba ya taɓa ninkawa.

Abin da zaman wasan ya nuna

Oscar’s Grind tsari ne da wani wanda ya fahimci sauran ya tsara. Ba shi da faɗuwa kwatsam, kuɗin caca yana zama matsakaici, kuma yana kawo dogayen jerin ƙananan nasarori. Farashin shi ne lokaci: zagaye na iya ɗaukar juye-juye arba'in, kuma ribar raka'a ɗaya a ƙarshe an saye ta da faɗuwar jarikuɗiFaɗuwar jari (drawdown)Faɗuwa daga kololuwar jarin caca zuwa wani ƙasa da ya biyo baya a cikin zaman wasa. Mafi girman faɗuwar jari ita ce mafi girman irin wannan faɗuwa.Karanta gaba ɗaya → da ta ninka girmanta sau ashirin. Asarar da ake tsammani a kowace dalar da aka sa a caca 2.70% ce, kuma niƙan yana ƙara daloli.

Tambayoyi

Wane ne Oscar?

Ɗan wasan craps da Allan Wilson ya bayyana a cikin The Casino Gambler’s Guide (1965). Tsarin ya girmi sunan.

Ƙaramin bambancin sakamako yana da kyau?

Yana nufin sakamakonku zai kasance kusa da abin da ake tsammani. Abin da ake tsammani kuma asara ne. Ƙaramin bambancin sakamako yana da kyau idan kuna son farashi da za a iya hasashe na maraice guda, kuma ba shi da kyau idan kuna son damar babbar nasara.

Me ke ƙare zagayen da ba zai rufe ba?

Jarin cacarkukuɗiJarin cacaJimillar kuɗin da aka ware don wasa. Sarrafa jarin caca shi ne yanke shawarar nawa za a sa a haɗari a kowace caca da kowane zaman wasa.Karanta gaba ɗaya → ko haƙurinku. Tsarin ba shi da dokar tsayawa; dole ɗan wasa ya kawo tasa.

Ɗan barkwanci

Hanya mafi jinkiri ta rasa 2.70%. Kuma mafi natsuwa.

Hanya mafi jinkiri ta rasa 2.70%. Kuma mafi natsuwa.

Majiyoyi

  1. Wilson, A. The Casino Gambler’s Guide. Harper & Row, 1965.
  2. Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling. Springer, 2010. Babi na 13, roulette.
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