Ma'aunin Kelly da roulette

Ma'aunin

John Kelly (1956) ya tambayi yadda mai caca da ke da sanannen fifiko zai tsara girman cace-cacensa don ƙara girman jarin cacakuɗiJarin cacaJimillar kuɗin da aka ware don wasa. Sarrafa jarin caca shi ne yanke shawarar nawa za a sa a haɗari a kowace caca da kowane zaman wasa.Karanta gaba ɗaya → a dogon lokaci gwargwadon iko. Amsar, ga cacar da ke biyan b zuwa 1 tare da yiwuwarlissafiYiwuwaDamar faruwar wani sakamako, daga 0 zuwa 1 ko daga 0% zuwa 100%. Lamba ɗaya: 1/37 = 2.70%.Karanta gaba ɗaya → nasara p da yiwuwar asara q = 1 − p, ita ce a saka kason f* = (bp − q) / b na jarin. Idan f* ya fi sifili, a saka wannan kason; idan sifili ne ko ƙasa da haka, kada a yi caca. Kelly ya yi aiki a Bell Labs, kuma takardarsa mai suna “A new interpretation of information rate” ta ɗora matsalar a kan ka'idar bayanai ta Claude Shannon: mai caca da ke samun shawarwari ta wani layi mai hayaniya, a biya na adalci, zai iya ƙara jarinsa ne kawai a gwargwadon yawan bayanan da layin ke ɗauka. A 1961 Leo Breiman ya tabbatar da cewa cacar Kelly, a dogon lokaci, tana ƙarewa sama da kowace dabara da ta bambanta da ita a zahiri, kuma tana kai ga burin da aka sa a kusan mafi gajeren lokaci.

Cacar Kelly a roulette

Ga jacacaJaCacar ɗaya zuwa ɗaya (even-money) a kan lambobi ja 18. A Faransanci: rouge.Karanta gaba ɗaya →: b = 1, p = 18/37, q = 19/37; f* = (18/37 − 19/37)/1 = −1/37. Ga straight upcacaStraight upLamba ɗaya tak, biya 35:1.Karanta gaba ɗaya → (cacar lamba ɗaya): b = 35, p = 1/37, q = 36/37; f* = (35/37 − 36/37)/35 = −1/1295. Kowace caca ta yau da kullum tana ba da kason Kelly da ke ƙasa da sifili, saboda kowace caca tana da fifiko a ƙasa da sifili, kuma kuɗin caca mafi dacewa don haɓaka shi ne sifili. Cacar Kelly a roulette hanya ce ta lissafi ta faɗin abin da shafin fifikon gidan caca ke faɗi: babu wani girman caca da cacar da ake tsammanin asara a cikinta za ta ƙara jarin caca.

Inda Kelly ya dace da gaske

Masu cin moriyar karkatar dabaran suna da fifiko, kuma suna da matsalar girman caca. Jagger, ʼyan gidan García-Pelayo da Eudaemons duk sai da suka yanke shawarar nawa za su saka a kan fifikon da suka auna; caca ƙasa da kima tana ɓata fifikon, yayin da caca fiye da kima ke haɗarin ƙarewar jari kafin fifikon ya bayyana. Ga ramikayan aikiRamiƊaya daga cikin ɗakuna 37 masu lamba a kan rotor. Ana kuma kiransa: slot, cup.Karanta gaba ɗaya → da ƙwallo ke faɗawa a cikinsa sau 1 cikin 30, Kelly ya ce 0.57% na jarin caca a kowane juyi a kan wannan lamba: da $10,000, kusan $57 a juyi, don haɓakar da aka saba gani ta kusan 0.054% a kowane juyi, ko ×1.7 a juye-juye 1,000. Matsakaicin riba ya ninka hakan, 0.11% a juyi, amma Kelly yana nufar jarin da aka saba gani ne, ba matsakaicin jari ba, wanda ʼyan jerin sa'a kaɗan ke kumbura shi. Rabin Kelly shi ne zaɓin da aka saba yi a aikace saboda ƙiyasin fifikon ba tabbatacce ba ne.

Shahararrun ʼyan wasan rouletteƘungiyar Eudaemons

Abin da aka saba gani da matsakaici

Tazarar da ke tsakanin jarin da aka saba gani da matsakaicin jari tana da faɗi. Ku ɗauki rami da ke faɗawa sau 1 cikin 25, fifiko na 44%, adadin da Thorp ya bayar ga na'urarsa. Kelly yana saka 1.26% na jarin a kansa. Bayan juye-juye 1,000 jarin da aka saba gani ya ƙaru kusan sau 11.5, yayin da matsakaicin, wanda ʼyan jerin sakamako kaɗan masu matuƙar sa'a suka ɗaga, ya ƙaru kusan sau 249. Caca fiye da Kelly tana ɗaga matsakaici kuma tana rage sakamakon da aka saba gani: a ninki biyu na kuɗin caca na Kelly jarin da aka saba gani yana ninkuwa sau biyu kawai, kuma a ninki biyu da rabi na kuɗin caca na Kelly yana raguwa, ko da yake kowace caca har yanzu tana da fifiko na 44%. Caca ƙasa da haka ba ta da tsada sosai: rabin kuɗin caca yana riƙe kusan kashi uku cikin huɗu na haɓakar.

Lokacin da fifikon hasashe ne

Kelly yana ɗauka cewa an san fifikon. A tebur ana ƙiyasta shi ne, kuma ƙiyasin yawanci ya fi ainihi. Misalin Epstein, wanda aka gina a kan 44% na Thorp, lamba ce da ta fito sau 49 a cikin juye-juye 1,225 na dabaran da ke da sifilidabaranSifiliRamin kore guda ɗaya da babu cacar ɗaya zuwa ɗaya, ta dozin ko ta ginshiƙi da ke rufe shi; tushen fifikon gidan caca. Ana kuma kiransa: sifili ɗaya, 0.Karanta gaba ɗaya → biyu: sau 1 cikin 25, fifiko na 44%, kuɗin caca na Kelly na 1.26%. Amma dabaran sifili biyu na adalci yana da lambobi 38, kuma wadda ta fi fitowa a cikinsu tana kaiwa sau 49 ko fiye a cikin juye-juye 1,225 kusan sau ɗaya cikin tara. Lambar da ta fi fitowa a kowane rikodi ita ce kuma wadda sa'a ta fi taimaka wa, don haka ko rami da ya karkata da gaske yana bayyana a rikodi fiye da yadda yake: wannan ita ce la'anar wanda ya ci. Idan wannan ramin a zahiri bai karkata ba, kuɗin caca na Kelly kawai caca ce da ke asarar 5.26% a matsakaici. Amsoshin da aka saba su ne a saka kaso na Kelly, kuma a ci gaba da ƙirga har sai fifikon ya tsira a sabon rikodi (ku duba Yadda ake gano karkatar dabaran roulette).

Mutanen da ke da fifiko

Sanin fifiko ba ɗaya ba ne da amfani da shi yadda ya kamata. Haghani da Dewey (2016) sun ba mutane 61 $25 kowanne don su yi caca na rabin sa'a a kan tsabar kuɗi da aka gaya musu tana faɗuwa a fuska 60% na lokaci, tare da iyakar riba ta $250 (ʼyan wasa sun san da iyakar ne kawai lokacin da suka kai gare ta). Kelly ya ce a saka 20% na jarin a kan fuska a kowane lokaci, kuma marubutan sun ƙiyasta cewa cace-cace masu tsayayyen kaso na 10–20% za su kai iyakar kusan 95% na lokaci. Kashi 21% kawai na ʼyan wasan suka kai can. Kashi 28% jarinsu ya ƙare gaba ɗaya, 18 cikin 61 sun saka komai a kan jefa ɗaya, kusan kashi ɗaya cikin uku sun gama ƙasa da $25 da suka fara da shi, kuma matsakaicin biyakuɗiBiyaAbin da cacar da ta ci ke dawowa da shi, ana faɗinsa a matsayin “X zuwa 1” a kan kuɗin cacar da aka mayar.Karanta gaba ɗaya → ya kasance $91. Biyar kawai cikin 61 suka taɓa jin labarin ma'aunin Kelly. Idan akwai fifiko, girman cace-cacen ne ke yanke ko za a riƙe shi; idan babu, kamar a dabaran na adalci, babu girman da zai taimaka.

Abin da za a yi amfani da shi maimakon haka

Ba tare da fifiko ba, girman caca tambaya ce ta kasafin kuɗi, ba ta haɓaka ba: kuɗin caca = abin da kuke son kashewa a kowane juyi, wanda aka samo daga kasafin kuɗin sa'a ɗaya da saurin teburin (shafin sarrafa jarin caca). Gudummawar Kelly ga ɗan wasa na yau da kullum ita ce bayyanannen amsarsa: sifili. Duk abin da kuka saka sama da sifili shi ne farashin wasa, wanda ku da kanku kuka zaɓa, ba wanda wata dabara ta lissafa ba.

Bayani kan wani kaso na Kelly da “sarrafa kuɗi”

Tsare-tsaren da ake sayarwa a matsayin “Kelly don roulette” waɗanda ke ba da shawarar tsayayyen kaso na jarin caca a kowace caca, caca daidai-wa-daidadabaraCaca daidai-wa-daidaYin caca da adadi ɗaya a kowane juyi. Ma'auni ne da ake kwatanta kowane jerin ƙarin caca da shi.Karanta gaba ɗaya → ne tare da kuɗin caca da ke raguwa. Suna asarar 2.70% na jimillar cacakuɗiJimillar cacaJimillar kuɗin da aka yi caca da su a cikin zaman wasa ko wani lokaci, har da kuɗin da aka ci aka sake sawa. Ana kuma kiranta: handle, action.Karanta gaba ɗaya → kuma, saboda kuɗin caca yana raguwa yayin da kuke asara, suna sa ƙarewar jari ta yi jinkiri maimakon ta zama mai wuya. Hanya ce mai ma'ana ta sa kasafin kuɗi ya daɗe; amma ba Kelly ba ce, domin Kelly zai ce a daina.

Dabarar caca iri ɗaya a roulette

Ƙa'idar lissafi

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