Kusantowa a dogon zango: dokar manyan lambobi a roulette

Dokar manyan lambobi

Matsakaicin sakamakon cace-cace masu zaman kansu yana nufar ƙimar da ake tsammanilissafiƘimar da ake tsammaniMatsakaicin sakamako a kowace caca a cikin dogon lokaci. −1/37 na kuɗin caca a kowace cacar Turai ta yau da kullum.Karanta gaba ɗaya →. Bayan juye-juye N na cacar ɗaya zuwa ɗaya da raka'akuɗiRaka'aKuɗin caca na tushe da tsari ko ɗan wasa ke aiki da shi. Ana bayyana jerin ƙarin caca a raka'a don su yi aiki a kowane tebur.Karanta gaba ɗaya → ɗaya, matsakaicin sakamako a kowane juyi yana da abin da ake tsammani na −1/37 da standard deviationlissafiStandard deviationTushen murabba'i na bambancin sakamako; nisan da sakamako ke yawan yi daga ƙimar da ake tsammani.Karanta gaba ɗaya → (ma'aunin bazuwa) na 1/√N. A N = 100, wannan bazuwar ta kai 10% na kuɗin caca, kusan sau huɗu na alamar 2.7%. A N = 1,000 ta kai 3.2%, kusan daidai da alamar. A N = 10,000 ta kai 1%, kuma fifikon gidan caca ya bayyana ƙarara. Fifikon ba ya ganuwa a zaman wasa ɗaya, amma ba za a iya musanta shi a cikin shekara guda ba.

Abin da ke daidaita da abin da ba ya daidaita

Matsakaici a kowane juyi yana daidaita. Jimilla ba ta daidaita: tana ƙara nisa daga sifili yayin da N ke girma, da kusan 2.7% na N a abin da ake tsammani, tare da bazuwar √N a kewayensa. Ana tsammanin ɗan wasan da ya buga juye-juye 10,000 da $10 ya yi asarar $2,700, ƙari ko ragi $1,000. Kason jacacaJaCacar ɗaya zuwa ɗaya (even-money) a kan lambobi ja 18. A Faransanci: rouge.Karanta gaba ɗaya → a cikin sakamakon ya daɗe da daidaita kusa da 48.65%; amma ragowar kuɗin ɗan wasa bai daidaita a ko'ina ba.

Dalilin da ya sa tunanin zuci ke kuskure

Mutane suna tsammanin fifikon zai bayyana da sauri saboda 2.70% yana jin kamar mai yawa, kuma suna tsammanin dogon wasa zai “daidaita” saboda dokar manyan lambobilissafiDokar manyan lambobiMatsakaicin sakamako masu zaman kansu yana kusantar ƙimar da ake tsammani yayin da yawan gwaje-gwaje ke ƙaruwa.Karanta gaba ɗaya → ta ce matsakaici yana daidaita. Duk tunanin biyu suna kuskuren girman abin: fifikon ƙarami ne idan aka kwatanta da bambancin sakamakolissafiBambancin sakamakoMa'aunin yadda sakamako ke yaɗuwa a kewayen ƙimar da ake tsammani. Yana da girma ga straight up, ƙanƙanta ga cace-cacen ɗaya zuwa ɗaya.Karanta gaba ɗaya → na juyi ɗaya (σ = raka'a 1 a kan EV = 0.027), don haka yana ɗaukar (1/0.027)² ≈ juye-juye 1,400 kafin ya bayyana a matakin sigma ɗaya. Kuma daidaitar matsakaici ba ta jawo jimilla ta dawo baya; tana kawai rage nauyin sauye-sauyen da suka gabata.

Daidaitawa a sauran cace-cace

Ga cacar straight upcacaStraight upLamba ɗaya tak, biya 35:1.Karanta gaba ɗaya → (cacar lamba ɗaya) σ = 5.84, don haka lissafi iri ɗaya yana ba da (5.84/0.027)² ≈ juye-juye 47,000 kafin fifikon ya kai sigma ɗaya. Ɗan wasan straight up zai iya yin wasa na shekaru ba tare da an iya bambanta fifikon da sa'a a cikin bayanansa ba, alhali yana biyan 2.70% daidai da ɗan wasan ja wanda ke ganinsa cikin ʼyan makonni.

Abin da hakan ke nufi ga gwajin tsare-tsare

Duk wanda ya ce wani tsari yana aiki ya kamata ya iya nuna shi a kan juye-juye 10,000 ko fiye tare da matsakaici mai riba da aka rubuta. A juye-juye 1,000, matsakaici mai riba a cacar ɗaya zuwa ɗaya abu ne da ke faruwa sau ɗaya cikin biyar ko da tsarin ba shi da wani tasiri; a juye-juye 100 kusan kamar jefa tsabar kuɗi ne. Simulators (na'urorin kwaikwayo) na wannan shafin suna gudanar da zaman wasa 2,000 na tsawon da kuka zaɓa a cikin daƙiƙa ɗaya, wanda shaida ce fiye da kowace shaidar baki.

Ƙa'idar lissafi

Tambayoyi