Misali: yammaci da D’Alembert

Shirin

A fara da raka'akuɗiRaka'aKuɗin caca na tushe da tsari ko ɗan wasa ke aiki da shi. Ana bayyana jerin ƙarin caca a raka'a don su yi aiki a kowane tebur.Karanta gaba ɗaya → ɗaya, $5, a kan jacacaJaCacar ɗaya zuwa ɗaya (even-money) a kan lambobi ja 18. A Faransanci: rouge.Karanta gaba ɗaya →. Bayan asara a ƙara raka'a; bayan nasara a cire ɗaya, amma kada a sauka ƙasa da ɗaya. Ra'ayin, wanda ba d’Alembert ne ya gabatar da shi ba amma ana ɗora masa laifi, shi ne cewa nasarori da asarori suna daidaita juna, don haka a kowane haɗin asara ɗaya da nasara ɗaya muna samun ribar raka'a ɗaya. Lissafi ya ce ja yana cin nasara a kashi 48.65% na juye-juye, don haka asarori sun fi nasarori da kusan ɗaya cikin arba'in, kuma kuɗin caca yana hawa a hankali a tsawon lokaci.

Juye-juye 1–30

Ja goma sha huɗu, baƙicacaBaƙiCacar ɗaya zuwa ɗaya (even-money) a kan lambobi baƙi 18. A Faransanci: noir.Karanta gaba ɗaya → goma sha biyar, sifilidabaranSifiliRamin kore guda ɗaya da babu cacar ɗaya zuwa ɗaya, ta dozin ko ta ginshiƙi da ke rufe shi; tushen fifikon gidan caca. Ana kuma kiransa: sifili ɗaya, 0.Karanta gaba ɗaya → ɗaya. Kuɗin caca ya hau zuwa $20 a lokacin jerin asara uku, ya koma $5 zuwa juyi na 18, kuma ya hau zuwa $25 a ƙarshen wannan ɓangare. Sakamakon tsaf +$20. Kowane haɗin asara da nasara ya ba da raka'a ɗaya tsaf kamar yadda aka faɗa; ƙarin asarorin sun cinye su. Yana ji kamar famfo mai tafiya a hankali wanda galibi yake aiki.

Juye-juye 31–65

Mummunan ɓangaren. Ja goma sha uku a kan waɗanda ba ja ba ashirin da biyu, har da jerin asara bakwai. Daga $5 a juyi na 41 kuɗin caca ya hau raka'a ɗaya-ɗaya zuwa $80, kuma kowace asarar $75 ta shafe goma sha biyar daga cikin nasarorin $5 na baya. Sakamakon tsaf −$485 a wannan ɓangare; jimilla ya zuwa yanzu −$465. Babu wani abin ban mamaki da ya faru a kowane juyi guda; hawan a hankali ne ya yi aikin.

Juye-juye 66–100

Ja ashirin a kan waɗanda ba ja ba goma sha biyar, kuɗin caca yana sauka daga $80 zuwa $55 da matakan $5. Kowace nasara a babban kuɗin caca ta dawo da kuɗi na gaske: nasarar $75 bayan asarar $70 haɗi ne da ke ba da +$5 tsaf, amma haɗin babba ne. Sakamakon tsaf +$425 a wannan ɓangare; ƙarshe −$40.

Lissafin kuɗi

Matsakaicin kuɗin caca kusan $37, don haka jimillar caca kusan $3,670, idan aka kwatanta da $500 ga wanda ke caca daidai-wa-daida da $5. Asarar da ake tsammanilissafiAsarar da ake tsammaniƘimar da ake tsammani sau jimillar kuɗin da aka yi caca da su; matsakaicin adadin da ake rasawa a cikin zaman wasa ko wani lokaci.Karanta gaba ɗaya → a kan $3,670 ita ce $99; ainihin sakamako −$40, ƙasa da standard deviationlissafiStandard deviationTushen murabba'i na bambancin sakamako; nisan da sakamako ke yawan yi daga ƙimar da ake tsammani.Karanta gaba ɗaya → ɗaya. Hawan girman kuɗin caca a hankali shi ne dukan tasirin tsarin: ƙarin kuɗi a kan tebur, 2.70% iri ɗaya daga kowace dala, da rarrabuwar sakamako mafi faɗi.

Abin da zaman wasan ya nuna

D’Alembert shi ne kuskuren ɗan caca da aka rubuta a matsayin dokar kuɗin caca: yana ɗauka cewa nasarori da asarori za su daidaita da wuri har kuɗin caca ya sauko. Suna daidaita ne a dogon lokaci ta hanyar narkewa a cikin yawa, ba ta gyara ba, kuma kuɗin caca ba shi da dalilin komawa raka'a ɗaya. Tsari ne mai tafiya a hankali ba tare da faɗuwa kwatsam ba, kuma wannan jinkirin ne ya sa ʼyan wasa suke yarda da shi.

Kusantowa a dogon zango: dokar manyan lambobi a roulette

Tambayoyi