Ɗakin gwajin roulette · Ɗakin gwaji · Ƙididdiga · minti 7

Girman samfuri

Juye-juye nawa ake buƙata kafin wani tsari ya zama yana da ma'ana.

Amsa a taƙaice

Domin gano, da kwarin gwiwa mai ma'ana, wani rami da yake fitowa sau 1 cikin 30 maimakon sau 1 cikin 37, ana buƙatar kusan juye-juye 4,400. Rami mai 1 cikin 35, irin wanda zai iya kawo riba a zahiri, yana buƙatar kusan juye-juye 70,000.

1 cikin 25
~juye-juye 1,100
1 cikin 30
~juye-juye 4,400
1 cikin 35
~juye-juye 70,000
hayaniya
∝ 1/√n

Me ya sa sai da yawa haka

Alamar, wato ƙarin fitowa kaɗan a kowane juyi dubu, ƙarama ce idan aka kwatanta da hayaniyar binomial ta √(n·p·(1−p)) ≈ √(n/37). Hayaniya tana raguwa kamar 1/√n, don haka rage rashin tabbas zuwa rabi yana buƙatar juye-juye ninki huɗu. Ramikayan aikiRamiƊaya daga cikin ɗakuna 37 masu lamba a kan rotor. Ana kuma kiransa: slot, cup.Karanta gaba ɗaya → mai 1/30 yana fitowa sau 33 a cikin dubu, a maimakon 27 da ake tsammani: ƙarin fitowa shida, tare da standard deviationlissafiStandard deviationTushen murabba'i na bambancin sakamako; nisan da sakamako ke yawan yi daga ƙimar da ake tsammani.Karanta gaba ɗaya → na kusan biyar. Samfuri ɗaya na dubu ba zai iya bambance su da tabbas ba.

Juye-juyen da ake buƙata don gano rami mai karkata (ƙarfin gwaji 80%, gefe ɗaya 5%)juye-juye
1 cikin 20
≈ 500
1 cikin 25
≈ 1,100
1 cikin 30
≈ 4,400
1 cikin 33
≈ 10,000
1 cikin 35
≈ 70,000
juye-juye
035000≈ 70,000
Karkatar da za ta iya kawo riba (1/35 ko fiye) tana buƙatar juye-juye dubbai da dubbai. Waɗanda ake iya gani cikin juye-juye dubu suna da girma ƙwarai, kuma ba za su tsira daga gyaran dabaran ba.

Ƙa'idar lissafi

Don gwajin gefe ɗaya na rami guda a matakin 5% tare da ƙarfin gwaji 80%, n da ake buƙata kusan ((1.645·√(p₀(1−p₀)) + 0.84·√(p₁(1−p₁))) / (p₁ − p₀))² ne, inda p₀ = 1/37, p₁ kuma adadin da ake zargi. Wannan yana aiki ne ga rami ɗaya da aka zaɓa tun kafin a fara. Idan kuna bincika dukan ramuka 37 don nemo mafi zafi, ku ninka da kusan biyu zuwa uku domin adadin kuskuren gano abin da babu ya kasance na gaskiya.

Fassara a aikace

Lamba mai zafitatsuniyaLamba mai zafiLambar da ta fito fiye da yadda ake tsammani a kwanan nan. A dabaran da ke da adalci ba ta hasashen komai.Karanta gaba ɗaya → bayan juye-juye 300 hayaniya ce kawai. Bayan 3,000, dalili ne na tattara ƙarin 3,000 daga dabaran ɗaya. Bayan 30,000, yana iya zama dabaran da ya cancanci a auna shi a zahiri. Duk wani cin moriyar karkatar dabaran da aka rubuta a tarihi an gina shi ne kan juye-juye dubbai da dubbai da aka rubuta, kuma kowanne ya ɗauki watanni.

juye-juyen da aka rubutaabin da za a iya faɗa da gaskiya
< 500babu komai game da kowane rami
1,000ana iya yin gwajin chi-square; yana gano manyan lahani kawai
5,000rami mai 1/30 zai iya bayyana; mai 1/35 ba zai bayyana ba
20,000rami mai 1/33 yana bayyana sarai; ana iya zana taswirar sassa
70,000+ana iya tabbatar da rami mai 1/35 da ke kawo riba
kowane adadi, an haɗa daga dabarai daban-dabanbabu komai; kuna gwada cakuɗe ne

Tsadar bayanan

Idan juye-juye 50 ne a awa ɗaya, juye-juye 10,000 suna nufin awa 200 na rubutawa, ko makonni da yawa na kwafar tarihin juye-juyen da aka wallafa, daga kan dabarankayan aikiKan dabaran (wheel head)Wata kalma ce ga rotor: ɓangaren da ke juyawa mai ɗauke da lambobi.Karanta gaba ɗaya → guda ɗaya da aka sani, wanda gidan caca bai juya ko ya sake sanya masa fret ba a wannan lokacin. Wannan, ba ƙididdiga ba, shi ne dalilin da ya sa wasa da karkatar dabaran ya mutu: zagayen gyaran dabaran ya fi zagayen tattara bayanai gajarta.

Karanta tarihin juye-juyen da aka wallafa

Girman samfuri don ganin fifikon gidan caca kansa

Lissafi iri ɗaya yana nuna tsawon lokacin da ɗan wasa ke buƙata kafin ya ga fifikon gidan cacalissafiFifikon gidan cacaKason kowane kuɗin caca da gidan caca ke riƙewa a matsakaici: 2.70% a roulette na Turai.Karanta gaba ɗaya → a cikin sakamakonsa: kusan juye-juye 1,400 na cacar da ke biyan daidai da kuɗin caca don sigma ɗaya, 10,000 kuma kafin fifikon ya bayyana ba tare da shakka ba. Duk wanda ya ce wani tsari yana aiki kan juye-juyen da suka gaza hakan, hayaniya kawai yake bayyanawa.

Ƙa'idar lissafi

n ≈ ((1.645·√(p₀(1−p₀)) + 0.84·√(p₁(1−p₁))) / (p₁ − p₀))²
σ(adadi) = √(n·p·(1−p))

Tambayoyi

Akwai hanya mafi gajarta?

Gwada sassadabaranSasheRamuka da ke bin juna a jere a kan dabaran kamar baka, sabanin ƙungiyar lambobi a kan teburin caca.Karanta gaba ɗaya → maimakon ramuka yana taimakawa, domin lahani na zahiri yawanci yana shafar baka ne, kuma alamar tana taruwa a cikin ramukan. Amma ba ya canza matakin girman adadin juye-juyen da ake buƙata.

Zan iya haɗa bayanai daga dabaran ɗaya a ranaku daban-daban?

Ee, idan kan dabaran iri ɗaya ne kuma ba a yi masa gyara ba. Wannan shi ne abin da ke da wuyar sani.

Me ya sa ƙarfin gwaji 80%?

Al'ada ce. Yana nufin za a gano karkatar gaske mai girman da aka faɗa sau huɗu cikin biyar.

Ɗan barkwanci

Hayaniya tana raguwa kamar 1/√n. Haƙuri yana raguwa da sauri fiye da haka.

Hayaniya tana raguwa kamar 1/√n. Haƙuri yana raguwa da sauri fiye da haka.

Majiyoyi

  1. Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1. Wiley, bugu na 3, 1968. Gambler’s ruin (ƙarewar jarin ɗan caca), babi na XIV.
  2. Barnhart, R. T. Beating the Wheel. Lyle Stuart, 1983.
an duba 2026-09-28samfuri: na Turai, sifili ɗayahanyar aiki ↗majiyoyi ↗