Tatsuniyoyi · Tatsuniyoyi · minti 6

Tatsuniya: lokacin wasu lambobi ya yi

“Goma sha bakwai bai fito ba a juye-juye 150. Lokacinsa ya yi.” Ba haka ba ne.

Amsa a taƙaice

Lambar da ba ta fito ba na dogon lokaci tana da yiwuwar fitowa a juyi na gaba daidai da kowace lamba: 1/37. Imanin cewa “lokacinta ya yi” shi ne kuskuren ɗan caca tare da allon sakamako a haɗe.

p(17 a gaba)
1/37, kullum
p(babu 17 a juye-juye 150)
1.7%
sau nawa hakan ke faruwa a wani wuri
kullum
hukunci
tatsuniya

Iƙirarin

Gidajen caca suna nuna sakamako 20 zuwa 500 na ƙarshe kuma sau da yawa suna yi wa lambobi “masu sanyi” da ba su fito ba na ɗan lokaci alama. ʼYan wasa suna karanta allon, su ga cewa 17 bai fito ba a juye-juye 150, sai su yi caca a kansa domin dole lokacinsa ya yi. Hujjar ita ce a dogon lokaci kowace lamba tana fitowa a kashi 1/37 na lokaci, don haka lambar da take baya dole ta cim ma sauran.

Dalilin da ya sa ba daidai ba ne

Juye-juye ba su da alaƙa da juna. Ƙwallokayan aikiƘwalloƘaramin ƙwallon da ake jefawa a hanyarsa a akasin juyawar rotor. Ƙwallayen zamani na ivorine ko Teflon ne, 18–21 mm.Karanta gaba ɗaya → bai san cewa 17 bai fito ba, kuma raminkayan aikiRamiƊaya daga cikin ɗakuna 37 masu lamba a kan rotor. Ana kuma kiransa: slot, cup.Karanta gaba ɗaya → girmansa ɗaya ne da yadda yake a da. Rabon dogon lokaci yana daidaita ne ta hanyar narkewa a cikin yawa, ba ta gyara ba: bayan ƙarin juye-juye 10,000, gibin juye-juye 150 ya zama ɗan ƙaramin kuskuren ƙiyasi, ba don 17 ya fito fiye da kima ba, sai don samfurin ya girma. Dokar manyan lambobilissafiDokar manyan lambobiMatsakaicin sakamako masu zaman kansu yana kusantar ƙimar da ake tsammani yayin da yawan gwaje-gwaje ke ƙaruwa.Karanta gaba ɗaya → ba ta buƙatar kowace lamba ta cim ma sauran; tana buƙatar kawai cewa sauye-sauyen da suka gabata su zama ƙanana idan aka kwatanta da jimillar.

Sau nawa wata lamba ke rashin fitowa na aƙalla juye-juye k%
juye-juye 37
36.3%
juye-juye 74
13.2%
juye-juye 100
6.5%
juye-juye 150
1.7%
juye-juye 200
0.4%
%
018.1536.3%
(36/37)ᵏ. Da lambobi 37 a kowane dabaran a kowane gidan caca, rashin fitowar juye-juye 150 yana faruwa a wani wuri a yanzu haka.

Dalilin da ya sa yake jin daidai

Domin a kowane ɓangare na rayuwa, rashin zuwa yana nuna cewa zuwa yana kusa: motar bas da ba ta zo ba na minti ashirin ta fi yiwuwar zuwa a mintuna biyar na gaba. Hakan yana faruwa ne domin motocin bas suna da jadawali. Roulette ba shi da jadawali; yana da yiwuwalissafiYiwuwaDamar faruwar wani sakamako, daga 0 zuwa 1 ko daga 0% zuwa 100%. Lamba ɗaya: 1/37 = 2.70%.Karanta gaba ɗaya →, kuma yiwuwa ba kaso ba ce da dole a cika. Wannan tunani yana da inganci a mafi yawan duniya amma ba daidai ba ne ga dabaran.

Gwajin

Ku rubuta lambobi “masu sanyi” ɗari daga allunan sakamako sannan ku yi caca a kan kowacce na juye-juye 37 masu zuwa. Yawan fitowa zai zama 1/37 a kowane juyi, daidai da na kowace lamba da aka zaɓa ba da tsari ba, da ɗan bambanci na kwatsam. Allon sakamako bayani ne kan abin da ya wuce. Ba shi da wani abin hasashe ga dabaran mai adalci, kuma a kan dabaran da ya karkatagwajiDabaran da ya karkataDabaran da lahaninsa na zahiri ke sa wasu ramuka su fi yiwuwa fiye da 1/37. Ba kasafai ake samunsa ba, kuma sai da dubban juye-juyen da aka rubuta ake iya gane shi.Karanta gaba ɗaya → (wanda sai an yi dubban juye-juye kafin a tabbatar) lambobi masu zafitatsuniyaLamba mai zafiLambar da ta fito fiye da yadda ake tsammani a kwanan nan. A dabaran da ke da adalci ba ta hasashen komai.Karanta gaba ɗaya → ne, ba masu sanyi ba, za a yi caca a kansu.

Girman samfuriSakamakon roulette: karanta allon sakamako

Tatsuniyar kishiya

“Goma sha bakwai yana da zafi, ku yi caca a kansa” kuskure iri ɗaya ne da aka juya alamarsa. Imanin biyu suna da ƙimar da ake tsammanilissafiƘimar da ake tsammaniMatsakaicin sakamako a kowace caca a cikin dogon lokaci. −1/37 na kuɗin caca a kowace cacar Turai ta yau da kullum.Karanta gaba ɗaya → iri ɗaya da rufe idanu a nuna: −2.70% na kuɗin caca. A Wasan gwaji, ku gudanar da tarihin ku ƙirga sau nawa lamba mai sanyitatsuniyaLamba mai sanyiLambar da ba ta fito ba a juye-juye da yawa. Ba ta ɗauke da wani bayani game da juye-juye masu zuwa a dabaran da ke da adalci.Karanta gaba ɗaya → take fitowa a juye-juye 37 masu zuwa; amsar tana kusan 63.7%, daidai da kowace lamba.

Tambayoyi

Shin gidan caca yana nuna lambobi masu sanyi don yaudarar ʼyan wasa?

Yana nuna su ne domin ʼyan wasa suna nema. Allon daidai yake kuma ba shi da amfani.

Me game da lambar da ba ta fito ba a juye-juye 500?

(36/37)⁵⁰⁰ ≈ 0.0001%: ba kasafai ba, kuma har yanzu 1/37 a juyi na gaba. Idan hakan yana ci gaba da faruwa a kan dabaran ɗaya, wannan tambaya ce ta karkata, kuma amsar ita ce a guji lambar.

Akwai lambar da lokacinta zai taɓa yi?

A'a.

Ɗan barkwanci

Yiwuwa ba kaso ba ce da dole a cika.

Yiwuwa ba kaso ba ce da dole a cika.

Majiyoyi

  1. Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1. Wiley, bugu na 3, 1968. Ƙarewar jarin ɗan caca, babi na XIV.
  2. Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling. Springer, 2010. Babi na 13, roulette.
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