ƊAKIN GWAJIGWAJI NA 06df = 36α = 0.05seed 99

Karkatar dabaran roulette

Dabaran roulette da ya karkata yana fifita wasu ramuka saboda lahani na zahiri: ƙarfen raba ramuka da ya sako-sako, dabaran mai juyawa mara daidaito, ramukan da suka zaizaye. Karkatar dabaran roulette tana wanzuwa kuma an taɓa amfani da ita. Wahalar ita ce dabaran mai cikakken adalci yana samar da “lambobi masu zafi” a koyaushe, don haka tambayar ba ita ce ko lamba tana da zafi ba, sai dai ko dukan tsarin ya fi rashin daidaito fiye da abin da kwatsam ke ba da dama.

1. Ɗaukar samfuri daga dabaran mai adalci

Juye-juyen da aka zaɓo daga dabaran kwaikwayo da babu karkata ko kaɗan. Ku canza girman samfurin ku kalli rami mafi zafi.

juye-juye370

abin da ake tsammani a kowane rami10.0

ramin da ya fi zafi20 · faɗowa 16 (4.32%)

mafi zafi da abin da ake tsammani+60% · 1.9σ

chi-square · p32.8 · 0.622

hukuncibabu shaidar karkata

2. Abin da aka gani da abin da ake tsammani

Kowane sanda rami ne bisa jerin dabaran. Layin ɗigo-ɗigo shi ne adadin da ake tsammani, n/37. Zirin da aka yi wa inuwa shi ne ±2 standard deviation: a dabaran mai adalci, kusan rami ɗaya cikin ashirin zai fita waje da shi ta hanyar kwatsam kawai.

0ramuka bisa jerin dabaran →26

3. Gwajin chi-square

Gwajin yana haɗa nisan kowane rami daga abin da ake tsammani, an yi masa murabba'i kuma an daidaita shi. A dabaran mai adalci, jimillar tana bin rarrabuwar chi-square mai darajar ʼyanci 36; ƙimar p da ke ƙasa da 0.05 ana kiranta mai muhimmanci bisa al'ada.

χ² = Σ (Oᵢ − Eᵢ)² / Eᵢ Eᵢ = n/37 df = 36
n = 370 · E = 10.00 · χ² = 32.80 · p = 0.622

Gargaɗi kan girman samfuriƘasa da kusan juye-juye 1,000, gwajin kusan ba shi da ƙarfin gano karkata ta zahiri, kuma sakamako “mai muhimmanci” a p < 0.05 zai faru ta hanyar kwatsam a 1 cikin kowane samfura 20 masu adalci da kuka duba. Gwada dabaran da yawa, ko sake gwada dabaran ɗaya har sai ya wuce, tabbas zai haifar da sakamakon ƙarya.

4. Juye-juye nawa za ku buƙata

Juye-juyen da ake buƙata don gano rami ɗaya da ke fitowa fiye da 1/37, a matakin 5% na gefe ɗaya tare da ƙarfin gwaji 80%. Ramin da ke fitowa sau 1 cikin 35 maimakon 1 cikin 37 zai zama babban fifiko ga ɗan wasa, kuma yana buƙatar dubun dubatar juye-juyen da aka rubuta kafin a tabbatar.

ainihin yawan fitowafifikon ɗan wasajuye-juyen da ake buƙataa juye-juye 40 a sa'a

1 cikin 25+44.0%1,10828 h

1 cikin 30+20.0%4,392110 h

1 cikin 33+9.1%15,747394 h

1 cikin 35+2.9%69,4611,737 h

Tabbatar da karkata yana nufin rubuta juye-juye dare bayan dare, dubun dubatarsu.

Hanyar aiki

Samfuri. Zaɓi daidai daga ramuka 37 ta amfani da na'urar samar da lambobi mai ƙayyadadden iri (mulberry32, seed 99), don a iya sake samun sakamakon shafin.

Gwaji. Gwajin dacewa na Pearson chi-square, darajar ʼyanci 36, ƙimar p daga regularized incomplete gamma function.

Ƙarfin gwaji. Kimantawar rarrabuwar normal ga gwajin rabo ɗaya, α = 0.05 gefe ɗaya, ƙarfin gwaji 0.80.

Iyaka. Gano ta hanyar ƙididdiga kawai. An yi bayanin dalilai na zahiri da nazari bisa sassan dabaran (maimakon bisa rami ɗaya-ɗaya) a Nazarin sassan dabaran.

Ɗan barkwanci

Dabaran mai adalci yana samar da lambobi masu “zafi” kowane dare. Tabbatar da karkata yana buƙatar dubun dubatar juye-juye.

Majiyoyi

Pearson, K. (1900). On the criterion that a given system of deviations… Philosophical Magazine, 50(302).
Thorp, E. O. (1969). Optimal gambling systems for favorable games. Review of the International Statistical Institute, 37(3).
Ethier, S. N. (2010). The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling. Springer. Babi na 13, Roulette.