Dabarar D'Alembert a roulette
Dabarar roulette ta D’Alembert tana ƙara raka'a ɗaya bayan asara kuma tana cire ɗaya bayan nasara.
Ba ta doke dabaran roulette ba. Ita ce jerin ƙarin cacadabaraJerin ƙarin cacaDuk wata ƙa'ida da ke canza kuɗin caca bisa sakamakon da ya gabata. Jerin ƙarin caca bayan asara yana ɗaga shi bayan an rasa, na bayan nasara kuma bayan an ci.Karanta gaba ɗaya → mafi sassauci a cikin sanannu: kuɗin caca yana hawa a hankali, faɗuwar jari matsakaiciya ce, kuma fifikon gidan caca bai taɓu ba.
Ku bi tsarin mataki-mataki
Asara tana hawa mataki ɗaya. Nasara tana komawa baya mataki ɗaya.
Kuɗin caca da sakamako suna cikin raka'o'in cacar tushe.
Tsarin roulette na D’Alembert, mataki-mataki
Ku saka raka'akuɗiRaka'aKuɗin caca na tushe da tsari ko ɗan wasa ke aiki da shi. Ana bayyana jerin ƙarin caca a raka'a don su yi aiki a kowane tebur.Karanta gaba ɗaya → ɗaya. Idan kun yi asara, caca ta gaba ta ƙaru da raka'a ɗaya. Idan kun ci, ta ragu da raka'a ɗaya, amma ba ƙasa da ɗaya ba. Shi ke nan. Ku yi tunanin allon tsalle-tsalle na yara: kowace asara tana ɗaga kuɗin caca mataki ɗaya, kowace nasara kuma tana mayar da shi. Imanin da ke ƙarƙashinsa shi ne cewa nasarori da asarori za su daidaita, don haka kuɗin caca zai dawo zuwa farko. Abin da ke jan hankali shi ne kowane haɗin nasara ɗaya da asara ɗaya a kuɗin caca masu bin juna yana ba da +1 raka'a tsaf: asarar 3, nasarar 4, tsaf +1.
Yaya zaman wasa yake kasancewa?
Mai sassauci, da kuɗin caca da ke hawa sama a hankali. Tun da asarori sun fi nasarori yawa 19 zuwa 18 a cacar ɗaya zuwa ɗaya, kuɗin caca yana hawa sama a dogon zaman wasa. Domin kuɗin caca ya fi girma lokacin da kuke asara, ya kuma fi ƙanƙanta lokacin da kuke ci, matsakaicin kuɗin caca a lokutan asara ya fi na lokutan nasara. Zaman wasa ya fi na MartingaledabaraMartingaleJerin ƙarin caca da ke ninka caca bayan kowace asara. Ku duba sashen “Dabarun caca na roulette” don ganin abin da yake yi da wanda ba ya yi.Karanta gaba ɗaya → santsi, da matsakaiciyar faɗuwar jarikuɗiFaɗuwar jari (drawdown)Faɗuwa daga kololuwar jarin caca zuwa wani ƙasa da ya biyo baya a cikin zaman wasa. Mafi girman faɗuwar jari ita ce mafi girman irin wannan faɗuwa.Karanta gaba ɗaya → kuma babu faɗuwa kamar daga dutse, kuma yana ɗan ƙara rasawa fiye da caca da kuɗi iri ɗayadabaraCaca daidai-wa-daidaYin caca da adadi ɗaya a kowane juyi. Ma'auni ne da ake kwatanta kowane jerin ƙarin caca da shi.Karanta gaba ɗaya → a matsakaici domin matsakaicin kuɗin caca ya fi girma.
- p10 −$500
- p25 −$500
- tsakiya −$500
- p75 −$500
- p90 −$500
Shin tsarin D’Alembert yana aiki?
A'a. Zaman wasa da ya daidaita yana cin nasara, amma zaman wasa ba sa ci gaba da kasancewa a daidaice. Bayan nasarori w da asarori l a kuɗin caca masu bin juna, sakamakon tsaf shi ne raka'a w − l tare da gyara bisa inda kuke a matakalar. Idan w = l sakamakon daidai +w raka'a ne, wanda yake kama da riba tabbatacciya. Matsalar ita ce w = l ba shi ne abin da ake tsammani ba: a juyi 37 ana tsammanin nasarori 18 da asarori 19. Ƙarin asara ɗaya a kuɗin cacar da ya hau zuwa, misali, raka'a 8 tana cin fiye da haɗin +1 guda takwas da aka samu. Ƙimar da ake tsammani tana zuwa −1/37 na jimillar cacakuɗiJimillar cacaJimillar kuɗin da aka yi caca da su a cikin zaman wasa ko wani lokaci, har da kuɗin da aka ci aka sake sawa. Ana kuma kiranta: handle, action.Karanta gaba ɗaya →, kamar yadda dole ya kasance.
Me ya sa gajerun zaman wasa ke yawan cin nasara?
Halin da ya daidaita wani ɓangare ne na ƙa'ida ɗaya da ta shafi kowane zaman wasa. Bari D ya zama yawan asarori a rage yawan nasarori. Zaman wasa na juyi N da ya fara a raka'a ɗaya yana ƙarewa a raka'a (N − D²)/2 − D, matuƙar babu cacar raka'a ɗaya da ta ci (bayan irin wannan nasara kuɗin caca ba shi da inda zai ragu). Idan D = 0 wannan +N/2 ne, wato +w na sashen da ke sama. Kowace ƙarin asara ana ƙirga ta murabba'i: bayan juyi 100, D na 4 har yanzu yana barin +38 raka'a, D na 8 yana barin +10, D na 10 kuma yana barin −10. Sa'a kaɗai tana yaɗa D da kusan √N, wato goma bayan juyi 100, kuma a wasan da babu sifilidabaranSifiliRamin kore guda ɗaya da babu cacar ɗaya zuwa ɗaya, ta dozin ko ta ginshiƙi da ke rufe shi; tushen fifikon gidan caca. Ana kuma kiransa: sifili ɗaya, 0.Karanta gaba ɗaya → ribar zaman wasa da yawa da suka daidaita da asarar ʼyan kaɗan da suka karkata suna share juna daidai. Sifili yana ƙara asara ɗaya a kowane juyi 37 a matsakaici, kuma tun da ana murabba'in D, farashinsa yana girma fiye da tsawon zaman wasa. Yawancin zaman wasa har zuwa juyi 100 suna ƙarewa da riba; matsakaicin sakamako ba ya taɓa yin haka, kuma bayan ʼyan ɗaruruwan juye-juye yawancin zaman wasa ma suna asara.
Me zai faru idan kun juya shi?
Contra-D’Alembert, wanda ake kira D’Alembert a juye, yana ƙara raka'a bayan nasara kuma yana cire ɗaya bayan asara. Hoton madubi ne na na asali daidai. Matuƙar babu cacar raka'a ɗaya da ta yi asara, zaman wasa na juyi N yana ƙarewa a raka'a (D² − N)/2 + D, inda D yanzu nasarori ne a rage asarori. Zaman wasa da ya daidaita yana rasa rabin raka'a a kowane juyi, kuma jerin nasarori da suka fi asarori sosai ne kawai ke kawo riba. Don haka yawancin zaman wasa suna ɗan yin asara, wasu kaɗan kuma suna samun riba mai yawa, akasin siffar na asali, kuma matsakaicin sakamako 2.70% iri ɗaya ne na kuɗin da aka saka.
Wane ne d’Alembert?
Jean le Rond d’Alembert, masanin lissafi kuma ɗaya daga cikin editocin Encyclopédie, ya yi jayayya a wata maƙala ta 1754 cewa bayan jerin “kai” na tsabar kuɗi, “wutsiya” ta fi yiwuwa. Ya yi kuskure, kuma kuskuren tunanin da ke ɗauke da sunansa wani nau'i ne na kuskuren ɗan caca. An sa wa tsarin D’Alembert na roulette sunansa daga baya, ta hannun ʼyan caca da ke da wannan imani. Ba shi ne ya ƙirƙiro shi ba kuma mai yiwuwa ba zai amince da shi ba.
Akwai wasu nau'o'i?
Contra-D’Alembert, da ke sama, yana aiki kamar ParolidabaraParoliJerin ƙarin caca bayan nasara: a ninka bayan nasara, a koma farko bayan asara ko bayan nasarori uku a jere. Ana kuma kiransa: reverse Martingale.Karanta gaba ɗaya → mai sassauci. Wasu ʼyan wasa suna ƙara raka'a biyu bayan asara kuma suna cire ɗaya bayan nasara, wanda ke ƙara tsaurin matakalar zuwa yankin Martingale. Duk nau'o'in suna da asarar da ake tsammanilissafiAsarar da ake tsammaniƘimar da ake tsammani sau jimillar kuɗin da aka yi caca da su; matsakaicin adadin da ake rasawa a cikin zaman wasa ko wani lokaci.Karanta gaba ɗaya → iri ɗaya a kan kowace raka'a da aka saka.
Simulator (na'urar kwaikwayo) · D'Alembert
Zaman wasa 2,000 na cacar ɗaya zuwa ɗaya daga jarin caca na $1,000.
Cacar tushe $10 · iyakar teburi $500 · juyi 100 a kowane zaman wasa
Sau nawa jerin asara ke zuwa
Cacar ɗaya zuwa ɗaya a kan dabaran mai sifili ɗaya tana yin asara a juyi 19 cikin 37. Kowane layi yana nuna yiwuwar cewa wasu juye-juye a jere duk za su yi asara, da abin da ɗan wasan D’Alembert, wanda ke ƙara cacar tushe ɗaya bayan kowace asara, ya rasa zuwa lokacin.
| asara a jere | yiwuwa | kusan 1 cikin | asara zuwa yanzu | caca ta gaba |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 51.4% | 2 | $1 | $2 |
| 2 | 26.4% | 4 | $3 | $3 |
| 3 | 13.5% | 7 | $6 | $4 |
| 4 | 7.0% | 14 | $10 | $5 |
| 5 | 3.6% | 28 | $15 | $6 |
| 6 | 1.8% | 55 | $21 | $7 |
| 7 | 0.94% | 106 | $28 | $8 |
| 8 | 0.48% | 207 | $36 | $9 |
| 9 | 0.25% | 403 | $45 | $10 |
| 10 | 0.13% | 784 | $55 | $11 |
| 11 | 0.065% | 1527 | $66 | $12 |
| 12 | 0.034% | 2974 | $78 | $13 |
| 13 | 0.017% | 5792 | $91 | $14 |
| 14 | 0.0089% | 11279 | $105 | $15 |
| 15 | 0.0046% | 21965 | $120 | $16 |
Yiwuwar ita ce 19/37 da aka ninka da kanta sau ɗaya a kowace asara, ana ƙirgawa daga juyi ɗaya ƙayyadadde. Zaman wasa mai tsawo yana da juye-juye da yawa inda irin wannan jeri zai iya farawa, don haka a cikin yamma guda ya fi yiwuwa nesa ba kusa ba fiye da yadda layi ɗaya ke nunawa.
Tambayoyi
Ba shi da faɗuwa kamar daga dutse, abin da ke sa shi zama jerin ƙarin caca bayan asara mafi sassauci. Bai fi caca da kuɗi iri ɗaya arha ba; ya ɗan fi tsada.
Sai dai iyakar teburiteburIyakar teburiMafi ƙanƙanta da mafi girman cacar da aka yarda da ita. Mafi girman ita ce ke dakatar da jerin ƙarin caca masu ninkawa.Karanta gaba ɗaya → ko jarin cacarkukuɗiJarin cacaJimillar kuɗin da aka ware don wasa. Sarrafa jarin caca shi ne yanke shawarar nawa za a sa a haɗari a kowace caca da kowane zaman wasa.Karanta gaba ɗaya →. A dogon zaman wasa na asara yana ci gaba da hawa.
Nishaɗi da lissafi
Ku fara gwada waɗannan da kanku. Kowace mafita a naɗe take; ku buɗe ta idan kun shirya.
Kuna buga tsarin D’Alembert a kan jacacaJaCacar ɗaya zuwa ɗaya (even-money) a kan lambobi ja 18. A Faransanci: rouge.Karanta gaba ɗaya → na juye-juye 50, kuna farawa da raka'akuɗiRaka'aKuɗin caca na tushe da tsari ko ɗan wasa ke aiki da shi. Ana bayyana jerin ƙarin caca a raka'a don su yi aiki a kowane tebur.Karanta gaba ɗaya → ɗaya, kuma ba ku taɓa cin caca ta raka'a ɗaya ba (bayan irin wannan nasara kuɗin caca ba shi da inda zai sauka ƙasa). Kun gama da asara 27 da nasara 23. Raka'a nawa kuke a gaba ko a baya? Kuma da asara 29 da nasara 21 fa?
Nuna mafita
Amsa Raka'a +13 da asara 27, raka'a −15 da 29. Juye-juye biyu cikin hamsin da suka juya ta ɗayan hanya sun jawo asarar raka'a 28.
Ku kira D asarori a rage nasarori. Sakamakon shi ne (N − D²)/2 − D ga juye-juye N. Da asara 27 da nasara 23, D = 4: (50 − 16)/2 − 4 = 17 − 4 = +13. Da 29 da 21, D = 8: (50 − 64)/2 − 8 = −7 − 8 = −15.
Dalilin da ya sa ƙa'idar ke aiki: kuɗin caca koyaushe raka'a ɗaya ne tare da asarorin zuwa yanzu a rage nasarorin zuwa yanzu. Kowace asara da wata nasara da ta zo daga baya ta soke tana yin biyu, a rasa s sannan a ci s + 1, wanda ke ba da +raka'a 1 tsaf, kamar yadda teburin da ke sama ya nuna. Daga cikin juye-juye N, irin waɗannan biyu-biyu (N − D)/2 suna samuwa, masu darajar +(N − D)/2. Asarori D da suka rage an sa su a kuɗin caca 1, 2 … D a hanyar hawa kuma ba a taɓa soke su ba; suna jawo asarar 1 + 2 + … + D = D(D + 1)/2. Tare: (N − D)/2 − D(D + 1)/2 = (N − D²)/2 − D.
Muraba'in shi ne dukkan labarin. Zaman wasa da ke daidai yana biyan rabin raka'a a kowane juyi, kuma kowane mataki daga daidaito yana jawo asara fiye da wanda ya gabace shi.
Kuna buga tsarin D’Alembert na baya-baya (reverse) a kan ja na juye-juye 100, kuna farawa da raka'a ɗaya, kuma babu cacar raka'a ɗaya da ta taɓa rasawa. Kun gama da nasara 52 da asara 48. Ina kuke tsaye? Kuma da nasara 60 da asara 40 fa?
Nuna mafita
Amsa Raka'a −38 da nasara 52, +170 da 60. Ƙaramin rinjaye a nasarori har yanzu yana rasawa; babba ne kaɗai ke biya.
Ku kira D nasarori a rage asarori. Sakamakon shi ne (D² − N)/2 + D ga juye-juye N.
Nasara 52 da asara 48: D = 4, don haka (16 − 100)/2 + 4 = −42 + 4 = −38.
Nasara 60 da asara 40: D = 20, don haka (400 − 100)/2 + 20 = 150 + 20 = +170.
Dalili: kowace nasara da wata asara da ta zo daga baya ta soke tana yin biyu, a ci a s sannan a rasa a s + 1, wanda ke ba da −1 tsaf. Nasarori D da suka rage an sa su a kuɗin caca 1, 2 … D a hanyar hawa kuma ba a taɓa soke su ba; suna kawo D(D + 1)/2. Daga cikin juye-juye N, biyu-biyu (N − D)/2 suna samuwa, don haka jimillar ita ce D(D + 1)/2 − (N − D)/2 = (D² − N)/2 + D.
Ƙa'idar D’Alembert ta asali ce da aka juya alamominta: a can, daidaito yana cin rabin raka'a a kowane juyi kuma ana hukunta rashin daidaito; a nan, daidaito yana jawo asarar rabin raka'a a kowane juyi kuma ana ba da lada ga rashin daidaito.
Ɗan barkwanci
An sa masa sunan masanin lissafi da ya yi kuskure game da tsabar kuɗi.
Majiyoyi
- RouletteDoc. Strategy description and examples.
- Roulette77. Strategy description and examples.
- d’Alembert, J. “Croix ou pile.”
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Epstein, R. A. The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic, 2nd ed.