Ƙungiyar Eudaemons

Zato a wata mashaya a Las Vegas, 1975

A lokacin bazara na 1975, Norman Packard, ɗalibin physics, ya shafe watanni biyu yana ƙidayar katuna a blackjack a Las Vegas tare da abokinsa Jack Biles, kuma da ƙyar suka koma daidai. A kan abin sha na ƙarshe, Biles ya ce zai yi caca cewa za a iya doke roulette da physics, sai Packard ya tuna wani layi mai ɓoyayyen ma'ana a littafin Edward Thorp, Beat the Dealer, game da wata hanya ta roulette. Su biyun suka aro na'urar ɗaukar sauti, suka tsaya kusa da dabarun a gidajen caca da dama, suna taɓa makirufo duk lokacin da ƙwallokayan aikiƘwalloƘaramin ƙwallon da ake jefawa a hanyarsa a akasin juyawar rotor. Ƙwallayen zamani na ivorine ko Teflon ne, 18–21 mm.Karanta gaba ɗaya → ya wuce wani wuri tsayayye. Da aka zana su a takardar jadawali, taɓe-taɓen sun nuna ƙwallon yana raguwar gudu yana faɗuwa ta hanya mai tsari. Abokin makarantar Packard, Doyne Farmer, ɗalibin digiri na gaba a Jami'ar California, Santa Cruz, ya kira shi ɓata lokaci har sai da ya yi lissafin da kansa: mutumin da zai iya auna lokacin ƙwallo zuwa kusan kashi ɗaya cikin goma na daƙiƙa ya kamata, a takarda, ya iya faɗin inda zai sauka cikin ʼyan lambobi kaɗan.

Dabaran a ɗakin gwajin physics

Tsakanin Maris da Mayu na 1976, Farmer da Dan Browne sun biya $1,500 tsabar kuɗi kan dabaran gidan caca da aka gyara a wani wurin aiki a Reno, suna cewa don bikin ƙungiyar ɗalibai ne. Tsawon watanni sukan ɗauke shi da dare zuwa ɗakin gwajin koyarwa na jami'ar, suna auna shi da na'urorin infrared, agogon lantarki da suka ƙera da kansu da kyamarar da ƙarar ƙwallon da ke bugun ƙarfe ke kunnawa. Abin da suka gano har yanzu jeri ne mai kyau na abubuwan da ke da muhimmanci a juyi. Iska ce ke rage gudun mafi yawa, fiye da hanyar ƙwallo. Dabaran da bai daidaita ba ko da da kashi ɗaya cikin goma na inci yana canza inda ƙwallo ke barin hanyarsa, kuma a dabaran da ya karkata ƙwallo yakan bar hanya a gefen da ke sama, abin da ke sauƙaƙa hasashen. Ƙwallaye sun bambanta: ƙwallon Teflon ya rage gudu sau biyu da sauri fiye da na kayan ƙwallon billiards. Kuma da zarar ƙwallo ya bar hanyarsa yana ci gaba da tsalle, a matsakaici bai wuce kashi ɗaya cikin huɗu zuwa ɗaya cikin uku na zagayen ba. Wannan tsallen ne tambayar da dukan shirin ya rataya a kai, kuma bai kai faɗin da zai shafe hasashen ba. Zuwa ƙarshen bazara, sun ƙiyasta yiwuwar fifikon a 44%, adadin da Thorp ya bayar ga tasa na'urar.

Kimiyyar motsin dabaran roulette

Kamfanin da “pie”

Sun kira aikin Eudaemonic Enterprises, daga wata kalmar Girka ta farin cikin rayuwar da ake yi bisa hankali. Duk wanda ya yi aiki a ciki za a biya shi daga ribar da za a samu nan gaba gwargwadon awannin da ya yi: yanki daga abin da suka kira Eudaemonic Pie. An yi niyyar ribar ta ɗauki nauyin al'ummar abokai masu yin kimiyya bisa ra'ayinsu.

Kwamfuta a ƙarƙashin hannu, 1976–1978

Na'ura ta farko ta samo asali daga kwamfutar haɗawa da kai da ta zo ta wasiƙa a Satumba 1976 kan $250, wadda aka gina kan processor 6502 da kwamfutocin Apple ma suka yi amfani da shi. Farmer, wanda bai taɓa rubuta shirin kwamfuta ba, ya rubuta lissafin ƙwallo da rotorkayan aikiRotorƁangaren dabaran da ke juyawa wanda ke ɗauke da ramuka.Karanta gaba ɗaya → a cikinta. Ana ɗaure sigar gidan caca a jiki, a ƙarƙashin hannu ko, ga mata, a cikin rigar mama. Ɗan wasan da ke gaban dabaran yana danna maɓallai da manyan yatsun ƙafa: yatsa ɗaya yana alamta sifilidabaranSifiliRamin kore guda ɗaya da babu cacar ɗaya zuwa ɗaya, ta dozin ko ta ginshiƙi da ke rufe shi; tushen fifikon gidan caca. Ana kuma kiransa: sifili ɗaya, 0.Karanta gaba ɗaya → sannan ƙwallo duk lokacin da suka wuce wani wuri tsayayye, ɗayan kuma yana sauya shirin tsakanin saitunansa. Daidaita shirin ga wani dabaran ya ɗauki kusan minti ashirin na danne-danne cikin natsuwa. Sannan, ʼyan daƙiƙoƙi bayan fara kowane juyi, kwamfutar tana ambaton ɗaya daga cikin ɓangaroridabaranSasheRamuka da ke bin juna a jere a kan dabaran kamar baka, sabanin ƙungiyar lambobi a kan teburin caca.Karanta gaba ɗaya → takwas na dabaran, ko ta nuna “kada a yi caca”, ta hanyar girgiza ƙananan turaku a kan fata. Ɗan wasa na biyu da ke can ƙasan teburin, wanda aka haɗa da shi ta raunanniyar siginar rediyo, yana jin girgizar ɗaya kuma yana rufe lambobi uku ko huɗu na wannan ɓangaren, wani lokaci yana musanya da lambar da ke kusa da ita a kan dabaran don tsarin ya yi wuyar ganewa.

Tafiya ta farko, zuwa Lake Tahoe da Reno a Disamba 1977, ta zama dogon lalacewar kayan aiki. ʼYan makonni bayan haka, a Golden Gate a tsakiyar birnin Las Vegas, Farmer ya yi wasa shi kaɗai na awa huɗu da rabi a kan cent goma kowace tsabar cacakuɗiTsabar cacaAlamar da ke wakiltar ƙayyadadden adadin kuɗi, wadda ake ajiyewa a kan teburin caca don yin caca. Ana kuma kiranta: check.Karanta gaba ɗaya →. Ribar ƙarama ce, amma a cikin juye-juye ɗaruruwa shi da Browne sun ƙiyasta fifikon, cikin taka-tsantsan, a 25%.

Dabaran roulette na Las Vegas

Bazarar 1978

A wannan bazarar ƙungiyar ta yi wasa bi da bi tsawon makonni, a tsakiyar birni da kan titin Strip, zaman wasa biyu a rana kuma ba gidan caca ɗaya a dare biyu a jere ba. Sun ajiye littafin bayanai kan kowane gidan caca: dabarunsa da yadda suka karkata, ma'aikatansa, lokutan canjin aikinsu. An gano cewa dabarun Las Vegas sun karkata cikin sauƙin kai, kuma wasannin tsakar dare suna da jinkiri, abin da kwamfutar take buƙata, domin rotor mai jinkiri da ƙwallo mai sauri suna ba da ƙarin lokaci don aunawa da yin caca. Akwai darare masu kyau. A Circus Circus, canjin croupiermutaneCroupierMai gudanar da wasa a teburin roulette.Karanta gaba ɗaya → da ƙarfe biyu na dare ya mayar da zaman wasa na asara zuwa ɗaruruwan daloli a cent 25 kowace tsabar caca. Kuma akwai jerin lalacewa marar yankewa: wayoyi da suka saku, haɗin rediyo da ke canzawa da yanayin zafi, girgizar wutar lantarki daga wayoyin eriya da aka ɗinka cikin rigunansu. Wani dare turakun sun maƙale, wayoyin sun yi zafi sosai, kuma Ingrid Hoermann ta ci gaba da wasa duk da ƙuna maimakon ta bar teburin da take nasara. Ma'aikatan gidan caca sun lura da nasarar amma ba su taɓa lura da hanyar ba; wata rana wani croupier, da ya damu da tarin tsabobin caca da ke ƙaruwa, ya kama dabaran da ke juyawa ya murɗe shi.

A cikin watanni goma sha uku sun yi tafiye-tafiye takwas zuwa Nevada kuma, suna caca galibi da dimes da quarters (cent goma da cent ashirin da biyar), sun ci ʼyan dubban daloli. Zaman wasa a California Club a Disamba 1978 ya kawo fiye da $1,000 cikin awa uku kuma ya gamsar da su cewa hanyar ta cancanci ingantattun na'urori.

Kwamfuta a cikin takalmi, 1980–1981

Don cire wayoyi daga jikinsu, sun yanke shawarar saka komai a cikin takalma. Mark Truitt, sabon wanda ya kammala karatun physics, wanda ya fita daga hirar neman aikin radar na soja, ya shafe shekara ɗaya da rabi a kai. Tunanin da ya sa ta dace ya fito ne daga wani ma'aikacin fasaha na jami'a: a kashe kwamfutar tsakanin hasashe, sai ta buƙaci batura ƙalilan. Truitt ya ɗora chips a kan allunan da'ira biyu da ya ƙera da kansa, ya juya ɗaya a kan ɗayan sannan ya cike tsakaninsu da kakin zuma mai tauri, abin da ya zama dunƙule mai faɗin kusan inci biyu da tsawon huɗu da kaurin rabin inci wanda za a iya taka shi. Batura, eriya da biyu daga cikin na'urorin girgiza uku sun shiga cikin dunduniyar takalmi. Na'urorin girgiza uku masu gudu uku sun ba da sigina tara: ɓangarori takwas da “kada a yi caca”. Wani mai gyaran takalmi ya haƙa cikin takalman fata na yau da kullum bai yi wata tambaya ba.

A Nuwamba 1981, Farmer da marubuci Thomas Bass sun ɗauki takalman da $2,500 zuwa Las Vegas. A teburin farko hasashe na farko ya yi nasara, sannan na'urorin girgiza suka fara harbawa ba tare da tsari ba. Gidajen caca cike suke da hayaniyar wutar lantarki, daga kyamarorin sa ido, alamun neon da injinan slot, kuma ta mamaye raunannen haɗin rediyo tsakanin takalman; talabijin a ɗakin otal ma ya yi haka. Kwanaki na gyara da mutum huɗu suka yi ba su warkar da shi ba, kuma aikin ya tsaya a nan. Kayan aikin suka shiga cikin akwati a wani ɗakin ƙasa a Santa Cruz.

Ma'anar 44%

A dabaran Amurka, straight upcacaStraight upLamba ɗaya tak, biya 35:1.Karanta gaba ɗaya → (cacar lamba ɗaya) yana nasara sau ɗaya a juyi 38 a matsakaici kuma yana biyan 35 zuwa 1, abin da ke jawo wa ɗan wasa asarar 5.26%. Fifikon 44% shi ne ƙimar wannan caca idan tana nasara sau ɗaya a juyi 25: tsabobin caca 36 suna dawowa a kan kowane 25 da aka sa. Don haka kwamfutar ba ta taɓa buƙatar sanin lambar ba. Abin da take buƙata shi ne ta sa lambobin da ta zaɓa su fito kusan sau ɗaya da rabi fiye da yadda sa'a ke bari.

Dabaran da dokokin roulette na Amurka

Me ya sa babban fifiko har yanzu ya yi kama da caca

Fifiko a 35 zuwa 1 yana biya a hankali kuma ba daidai ba. Ɗaya daga cikin masu ba ƙungiyar shawara ya yi gargaɗi cewa ɗan wasan da ke sa $100 a kowace lamba zai iya yin asarar $10,000 ko $20,000 kafin fifikon ya bayyana, kuma lissafi ya yarda: da fifikon 44% kan lambobi ɗaiɗai, ɗan wasa har yanzu yana baya bayan juye-juye 100 kusan sau ɗaya cikin huɗu. Shi ya sa Eudaemons suka fara da dimes (cent goma) suka gina jarin cacakuɗiJarin cacaJimillar kuɗin da aka ware don wasa. Sarrafa jarin caca shi ne yanke shawarar nawa za a sa a haɗari a kowace caca da kowane zaman wasa.Karanta gaba ɗaya → nasu daga riba, kuma shi ya sa Alan Lewis, wanda ya shiga cikinsu a 1978, ya shafe lokacinsa kan nawa za a sa a caca. Daga baya Farmer ya ɗauka cewa sun yi taka-tsantsan fiye da kima. Ƙananan kuɗin caca sun kare su, amma kuma sun sa shekarun aiki ba su kawo kuɗi sosai ba.

Abin da ya kashe da abin da ya biya

Kusan $15,000 ne aka kashe kan sassa, kayan aiki da albashin Truitt, mafi yawansa daga Farmer da Letty Belin, lauya wadda daga baya ta aure shi. An lissafa wa Farmer awa 3,500 na aiki, Truitt 3,000 da Packard 2,000. A ɗaya ɓangaren kuma akwai ʼyan dubban daloli da aka ci da ƙananan kuɗin caca. A 1983 Farmer ya yi talla a wata mujallar caca yana neman masu zuba jari, yana bayyana samfurin na'ura mai tabbataccen fifiko a gidan caca na 20 zuwa 40%. Lokacin da Eudaemons suke wasa, binciken da Belin ta yi kan dokokin Nevada bai sami komai da ya hana hasashen wasa ba; a Mayu 1985 jihar ta mayar da amfani da na'ura don haka laifi. Abin da ya ɗore shi ne kimiyyar. Gina kwamfutocin ya horar da Farmer, Packard da abokansu don nazarin chaos (rikitarwa), inda suka yi suna.

Karanta littafin a yau

Thomas Bass, wanda ya sa cace-cacen a tafiya ta ƙarshe, ya ba da labarin a cikin The Eudaemonic Pie (1985), wanda aka gina kan dogayen hirarraki da ƙungiyar, kuma shi ne tushen wannan shafi. Taƙaitaccen tarihin roulette da ke cikinsa bai kai labarin aikin aminci ba. Yana maimaita labarin ma'aikata shida da Jagger ya ɗauka haya, wanda ya samo asali daga wani littafi na 1901 kawai (duba Joseph Jagger), kuma ya sa gwajin gidan caca na Thorp da Shannon a 1962, inda bayanan Thorp da kansa suka ce bazarar 1961 ce.

Tambayoyi